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Analyzing the Odds of Each NFL Playoff Team Winning the Super Bowl and Breaking Down Divisional Matchups

Thirty-two teams embarked on a mission this season to win Super Bowl LVIII. Eight teams remain.
Jeff Howe breaks down each of the four divisional-round matchups this weekend before The Athletic’s projection model, created by Austin Mock, reveals each team’s odds of winning the Super Bowl.
AFC A look at the AFC playoff bracket after the Bills’ win over the Steelers.
◽️ Ravens-Texans: Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET
◽️ Bills-Chiefs: Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET
No. 1 Baltimore Ravens vs. No. 4 Houston Texans, 4:30 p.m. ET, Saturday
Texans rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud dazzled in his playoff debut by completing 16 of 21 passes for 274 yards and three touchdowns. Stroud’s poise has been remarkable at this early juncture of his career. He has completed at least 75 percent of his passes in three consecutive games and hasn’t thrown an interception in six straight.
Perhaps no one strengthened their head-coaching candidacy more over wild-card weekend than Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and teams with vacancies will be monitoring his chess match against Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald. The Ravens have allowed an average of 15.5 points over their last four games against quality competition (the Jacksonville Jaguars, San Francisco 49ers, Miami Dolphins and Pittsburgh Steelers).
No. 2 Buffalo Bills vs. No. 3 Kansas City Chiefs, 6:30 p.m. ET, Sunday
The weekend’s marquee matchup will mark Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ postseason road debut.
The NFC Divisional round is set.
◽️ 49ers vs. Packers
◽️ Lions vs. Buccaneers
No. 1 San Francisco 49ers vs. No. 7 Green Bay Packers, 8 p.m. ET, Saturday
The Packers, who now have as many playoff wins at AT&T Stadium as the Dallas Cowboys (three), delivered the biggest upset of the wild-card round behind big-time performances from quarterback Jordan Love and running back Aaron Jones. They had an incredibly disciplined game plan to control the game on the ground, take their shots when necessary and prevent big plays on defense, and they executed it to perfection.
No. 3 Detroit Lions vs. No. 4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 3 p.m. ET, Sunday
Nobody threw a bigger party over the weekend than the Lions, who won their first playoff game in 32 years and captured just their second postseason victory since 1957. They’ll host multiple games in one postseason for the first time in the franchise’s 94-year history.

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