Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won Taiwan’s presidential election a month ago. Since then, there have been cross-strait developments, even during the Lunar New Year holidays, which are significant for Taiwan and China.
China denounced Lai’s victory and continues to portray him as a dangerous cross-strait provocateur. However, the Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) emphasized that the Chinese government would collaborate with supportive political parties and groups in Taiwan. This unusual messaging may signal a shift in strategy to bypass Lai’s authority and engage directly with groups in the pan-Blue camp.
Meanwhile, China resumed poaching Taiwan’s diplomatic allies, with Nauru breaking ties with Taiwan in favor of China. Speculation also surrounds Taiwan’s relationship with Guatemala after a leadership transition there. However, Taiwan’s loss of diplomatic allies is unlikely to have a substantial impact given its larger population and economy. Unofficial relationships with Western powers and the United States are of greater importance.
China is exerting pressure on Taiwan to restrict its international space. This includes moving international sporting events from Taiwan and challenging Taiwan’s hosting rights. Furthermore, China has announced changes to flight routes close to the Taiwan Straits, leading to security concerns.
The Taiwanese government has responded by maintaining restrictions on Chinese group tours and critiqued China’s use of civilian flights for geopolitical purposes. China has increased military pressure on Taiwan with a significant rise in the number of balloons sent over Taiwan. The drowning deaths of two people on a Chinese speedboat in Kinmen territorial waters could further escalate regional tensions.
The incident has been blamed on the Taiwanese Coast Guard by the TAO, raising the possibility of increased public outrage from the Chinese government.