They entered the NFL with great fanfare and lofty expectations of one day ranking among the best collections of talent the NFL had seen at their position. But just three years later, the 2021 quarterback draft class instead largely looks like one great big bust.
While NFL teams continue their assessments of another highly touted group of quarterbacks leading up to April’s draft, two of the five QBs drafted in the 2021 first round (Justin Fields and Mac Jones) were just traded for meager compensation. A third (Trey Lance) prepares to enter Year 2 as a backup for his second team. And a fourth (Zach Wilson) is facing an uncertain future in the NFL.
Trevor Lawrence — the No. 1 pick — is the only 2021 first-round quarterback still viewed as the answer for his drafting team, the Jacksonville Jaguars. But even Lawrence has yet to blossom into a transformative star. Meanwhile, Wilson clearly is in his last days with the New York Jets, who will trade or cut him. Lance is a backup for the Cowboys, traded to Dallas after Brock Purdy took over as the leader of San Francisco’s offense. Fields just got shipped from Chicago to Pittsburgh. And the Patriots essentially gave Jones to the Jaguars, who will use him as Lawrence’s backup.
Instead of rivaling the 1983 draft class of Hall of Famers John Elway, Jim Kelly, and Dan Marino, the 2021 QB class will instead serve as a cautionary example about how commonly teams miss when it comes to talent evaluations, projections, and developmental plans.
But what went wrong? Why are these once-heralded quarterbacks still stuck in developmental stages and/or bordering on bust territory?
Trevor Lawrence is still with the Jaguars but has had an up-and-down three seasons. (Steve Roberts / USA Today)
Lawrence and the Jaguars
Lawrence has not yet approached elite status, but he’s the closest thing to a franchise quarterback this bunch has yielded. He is 20-30 as a starter with 58 touchdown passes, 39 interceptions and a completion percentage of 63.8. His lone winning season (9-8 in 2022) yielded a playoff appearance (Jacksonville went 1-1 in the postseason) and a Pro Bowl selection after he passed for 4,113 yards, 25 touchdowns and just eight interceptions. Lawrence and the Jaguars took a slight step backward in 2023, however, and missed the playoffs after an up-and-down year that concluded with a 1-5 skid.
Although Lawrence has struggled with consistency, most NFL talent evaluators still think he has promise. They believe his development was handicapped by a rookie season marked by dysfunction and toxicity under Urban Meyer, who was fired after a 2-11 start. The Jaguars replaced him with Doug Pederson, who has been good for Lawrence, though some of the accuracy issues the QB exhibited in college against top-level DBs have followed him to the NFL. Lawrence also played through some injuries in 2023. Health and another season in Pederson’s system should help advance his development.
Zach Wilson is likely to be cut if the Jets can’t work out a trade for him. (Jasen Vinlove / USA Today)
Wilson and the Jets
Wilson pre-draft workouts and college game film showcased his escapability and an improvisational wizardry that reminded talent evaluators of Aaron Rodgers. But BYU didn’t face elite talent in 2020, competing against schools from Conference USA, American Athletic, Sun Belt, and Mountain West conferences, and the jump to the NFL proved far steeper for the No. 2 pick than the Jets ever imagined.
Wilson’s three Jets seasons have been a disaster. He’s 12-21 as a starter with 23 touchdown passes, 25 interceptions, and a completion percentage of 57.0, plus multiple benchings. In retrospect, Wilson never should have gone as early in the draft as he did, and also needed to sit behind a veteran starter to learn and develop gradually both mentally and physically.
Wilson now faces an uncertain future. The Jets are trying to trade him after he struggled again as a starter following Rodgers’ season-ending Achilles injury in Week 1. And while the first week of free agency featured a fair amount of quarterback movement, Wilson’s name hasn’t even been linked to teams in rumors of potential deals. If Wilson is cut, some rival talent evaluators believe someone will take a flier on him as a backup/reclamation project.
Lance and the 49ers
San Francisco knew Lance would be a project, with only one full season of experience coming out of North Dakota State. Yet the 49ers deemed Lance worthy of trading up to take him third overall.
After a season behind Jimmy Garoppolo, Lance entered 2022 as San Francisco’s starter but struggled before suffering a fractured ankle. The emergence of Purdy later in the season and Lance’s continued developmental struggles caused the 49ers to trade Lance to Dallas for a fourth-round pick, where he spent the entire season as the Cowboys’ third quarterback.
The 49ers grossly erred in their assessment of Lance, who eventually proved to be far more raw and less dynamic than expected. The move to Dallas could be beneficial for Lance’s development in the long run.
Fields and the Bears
Fields spent one season under Matt Nagy before starting over under new coaching staff. He saw success as a rusher but struggled as a passer, mainly due to a poor developmental plan and lack of support.
Fields was ultimately traded to the Steelers for a fresh start and will learn from Super Bowl champion Russell Wilson as his backup, allowing him to refine his passing skills and understand NFL defensive concepts.
Jones, despite a solid rookie season, regressed in Year 2 due to team mismanagement and lack of offensive coordinator support. He is now in Jacksonville as Lawrence’s backup.
In five weeks, the next crop of star college quarterbacks will enter the NFL, with teams hoping to avoid the mistakes made with the 2021 quarterback draft class.
Their success will depend on avoiding poor talent projection and providing adequate coaching and roster support.
(Top photos of Trey Lance, Justin Fields, and Mac Jones: Christian Petersen, Michael Reaves, and Chris Unger / Getty Images)