I firmly believe in retaining talented players rather than letting them go.
Experience has taught me that finding talent to replace departing players is incredibly challenging, even with a well-thought-out plan in place. Losing a good player often means taking a step back. Therefore, I recognize that in some cases, established teams may need to pay a premium to maintain continuity.
However, recent contracts signed by NFL wide receivers have caused me to reevaluate my stance. It seems like general managers and team architects across the league are also grappling with the same dilemma.
The issue stems from the increasing amounts of money being allocated to wide receivers. While these players are undoubtedly talented, the escalating contract figures are complicating team-building strategies like never before.
There are two main concerns here. Firstly, if a team is committing over $30 million annually to a wide receiver, are they truly a game-changer or just a cog in the system? Secondly, is it practical to allocate substantial salaries to multiple wide receivers on the roster?
Football GM Podcast is back with a run thru the #NFLDraft & more … @RandyMueller_ & I tie together WR evaluation in the draft, WR valuation in the veteran market & what the #bills are attempting, for example.
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A decade ago, the highest-paid wide receivers in the NFL earned around $16 million annually, which made up about 12 percent of the $133 million cap. Fast forward to today, and A.J. Brown leads the pack with a $32 million yearly salary against a $255 million cap. Despite the increase, this still hovers around 12.5 percent of the cap. Let’s delve deeper into these numbers.
In 2014, the top earners in the position, Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald, were making $16 million yearly and were considered the gold standard. There weren’t many receivers surpassing their salary at that time. Following their contracts, subsequent deals in 2015 for Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Julio Jones, and A.J. Green stayed below the $15 million mark. It wasn’t until 2017, with Antonio Brown hitting $17 million annually (10.2 percent of the $167 million cap), that Johnson’s and Fitzgerald’s contracts were surpassed.
The receiver market has already reset twice recently, with upcoming deals for Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Ja’Marr Chase, and Brandon Aiyuk poised to elevate the benchmark even further. Given the potential for these players to set a new high standard, we might see salaries exceeding $35 million annually, representing 13.7 percent of the cap or more. This puts the Minnesota Vikings, Dallas Cowboys, Cincinnati Bengals, and San Francisco 49ers in a difficult position with far-reaching implications for their rosters.
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Teams must carefully assess how to allocate these additional funds. Is it justifiable to invest heavily in a non-quarterback position? Should any position group besides quarterbacks surpass 20 percent of the team’s cap space? How will this impact other roster decisions?
For example, while extending Jefferson, the Vikings need to consider how this might affect their ability to retain players like Jordan Addison when his rookie deal expires. To mitigate these financial constraints, having a quality quarterback on a rookie contract, like J.J. McCarthy, could be instrumental. If I were managing the Vikings, I would prioritize re-signing Jefferson and focus on developing WR2 options for when Addison’s contract ends.
As for the Cowboys, navigating Lamb’s contract demands will require creative solutions, especially with the looming QB situation with Dak Prescott’s hefty deal. The Bengals should also strategize around signing Chase preemptively to avoid resetting the market after subsequent deals for Lamb and Jefferson. Their decision to potentially let Tee Higgins go could necessitate another significant investment in the draft at the wide receiver position.
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The 49ers face a complex dilemma with Samuel and Aiyuk already commanding significant contracts. The addition of Ricky Pearsall in the draft provides the team with future options at the position. However, the financial implications of having over $56 million against the cap allocated to four pass catchers raise questions about sustainability and value.
Looking ahead, changes are likely on the horizon post the 2024 season. With such a substantial cap hit from the receiving corps, tough decisions will have to be made to realign the team’s finances.
Will Deebo Samuel, left, or Brandon Aiyuk be elsewhere in 2025? (Thearon W. Henderson / Getty Images)
While I acknowledge that players deserve fair compensation, NFL teams will eventually have to confront the consequences of these escalating costs, much like any credit extension. How organizations deal with the exorbitant salaries of wide receivers will be crucial moving forward.
As salaries climb, cheaper alternatives start looking more attractive.
The 2024 draft saw 35 wide receivers selected, with a notable seven picked in the first round. This trend could suggest several things:
1. As experienced receivers become pricier, teams are turning to more affordable talent.
2. College football’s emphasis on passing offenses and seven-on-seven drills is producing receivers with advanced skills at a younger age.
3. Skilled evaluators can accurately identify and develop young receivers, making their transition to the NFL smoother.
If teams can pinpoint specific traits, beyond traditional metrics, that lead to successful prospects, they can find value in cheaper options. Here are my top three traits crucial for a receiver to excel in any system:
• Ability to create separation during route breaks or shift gears mid-route.
• Read and react effectively to pre- and post-snap coverage, showcasing strong football IQ.
• Consistently catch the ball away from defenders, enabling smaller receivers to play bigger and enhancing the performance of larger receivers.
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How WRs’ new leverage is changing roster-building strategies
In recent years, drafts have been rich in receiver talent, and even in weaker free-agent classes, there have been valuable acquisitions. In essence, top-dollar spending isn’t always a prerequisite for acquiring quality receivers.
Teams like the Green Bay Packers, Kansas City Chiefs, and Buffalo Bills have already adopted this approach, bolstered by having talented quarterbacks at their disposal.
For instance, the Packers and Chiefs traded star receivers before the 2022 season instead of succumbing to their contract demands. The Bills also made strategic moves, opting for quantity with moderately priced veterans and draft picks after trading a high-value receiver.
While the Raiders’ handling of Adams hasn’t yielded the desired results, the Packers have successfully revamped their receiving corps through focused development.
By drafting promising talents like Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, the Packers have laid the foundation for a cost-effective and productive receiver group, with a total cap hit well below market-setting extensions.
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This strategic approach requires confidence in scouting and player evaluation, but it has proven effective for the Packers. By eschewing high-profile signings in favor of developing homegrown talent, the team has maintained a balanced and cap-friendly roster.
While every team’s approach may differ, it’s evident that there’s room for innovation in how organizations handle the escalating costs surrounding wide receivers. Each organization needs to find the right balance to maintain a competitive and sustainable team structure.
(Top photos of Amon-Ra St. Brown, left, and Justin Jefferson: Cooper Neill, Grant Halverson / Getty Images)
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