Ethnic armed groups are once again active in eastern Myanmar along the border with China, following the breakdown of a China-brokered ceasefire recently.
Reports indicate that the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) launched a significant offensive near Lashio, the largest city in northern Shan State, yesterday morning.
Fierce clashes have erupted around Lashio, a strategic city with important military presence. In response, junta bases in Lashio have reportedly attacked villages in the area.
This escalation marks the end of the Haigeng Agreement, a ceasefire mediated by China between the Myanmar military and the MNDAA and Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), members of the Three Brotherhood Alliance that includes the Arakan Army as well.
The attacks started on June 29, with the TNLA resuming activities on June 25, citing violations of the ceasefire by the junta. The goal of the TNLA is to fight against the dictatorship, although the timeline and extent of their actions remain uncertain.
The TNLA, with the support of People’s Defense Forces (PDFs), engaged junta forces in various townships in Shan State and Mandalay Region.
The recent offensive has seen the Three Brotherhood Alliance gaining ground and seizing junta bases, with over 100 regime troops surrendering.
If the current offensive progresses as rapidly as Operation 1027 last year, the Myanmar military’s hold in northern Shan could collapse completely. This could potentially open up the central plain to resistance attacks.
Concerns also arise regarding China’s stance in the conflict, especially after former President Thein Sein’s visit to Beijing on June 29, potentially seeking Chinese intervention to halt the offensive.
Observers speculate about China’s response, considering the past dynamics involving Chinese acceptance of the Three Brotherhood Alliance’s actions to curb illegal activities in border areas controlled by the junta.
Following the ceasefire collapse, there are concerns about the stability of the border region, crucial for China’s Belt and Road Initiative projects. Some believe that China may be teaching the junta a lesson for not engaging in dialogue.