On Monday, August 26, the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), a Baloch terrorist organization, initiated a series of attacks throughout Pakistan’s Balochistan province, resulting in the deaths of over 70 civilians and military personnel. These attacks followed recent protests in the province. The BLA demonstrated a new level of sophistication in these attacks, not only in terms of coordination, but also by targeting crucial infrastructure such as railway connections leading to Quetta. This underscores the BLA’s unwavering dedication to their insurgency in the southwestern province.
While these attacks may appear to be an internal security issue for Pakistan, they are part of a wider insurgency across the Iran-Pakistan border. In the past year, there have been numerous attacks by Baloch terrorists inside Iran. These incidents led to deadly operations by the Iranian military in January on Pakistan, targeting insurgents who had crossed the border. In response, Pakistan carried out retaliatory tit-for-tat strikes against suspected BLA militants in Iran. While diplomatic relations were restored and both nations agreed to collaborate on counterterrorism efforts, these events highlighted the mutual suspicion regarding insurgents operating across their borders.
The August 26 attacks have raised concerns in Pakistan about Iran’s efforts to combat BLA militants within its borders. Recent incidents suggested that militants were active on both sides of the porous border. For instance, the capture of Balochistan Liberation Front leader Wahid Kambar by Pakistani forces on July 19 raised speculation that the abduction occurred in Iran, indicating the ease with which Balochi militants can move across the border. Additionally, the discovery of five bodies in Quetta on August 16, identified as Afghan nationals and previously seen in a hostage video released by Jaish-Ul-Adl, emphasized the group’s ability to operate across Balochistan.
The history of insurgency on both sides of the border suggests a lack of sustained success in joint counterterrorism efforts between Iran and Pakistan. Tensions have escalated in the past due to cross-border attacks, resulting in retaliatory actions between the two countries. The recent sophistication of the August 26 attacks and the failure to prevent cross-border terrorist activities in recent months indicate a serious challenge for both nations’ intelligence agencies.
Pakistan’s concerns about external actors disrupting infrastructure, particularly the Chinese-owned port of Gwadar and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), have further fueled suspicions. While this does not directly accuse Iran, it suggests a belief that international forces may be involved in undermining CPEC. Such speculation was echoed by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on August 27.
While Iran’s role in the August 26 attacks remains unconfirmed, the circumstances raise questions about Iran’s potential involvement or lack of action against intelligence indicating imminent attacks in Pakistan. The historical mistrust between the two countries, their past willingness to use force against each other, and the recent surge in cross-border terrorist activities heighten concerns about the situation.
These attacks have dealt a significant blow to Pakistan’s efforts to develop and stabilize Balochistan. The sophistication of the attacks, coupled with distrust of neighboring countries and the search for accountability, could lead to Pakistan viewing counterterrorism cooperation with Iran with suspicion. This would not be the first time Pakistan has opted for a unilateral approach to address the Balochistan insurgency.