Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Russia sparked discussions on its impact on India’s relations with the West. Modi’s embrace of Vladimir Putin during Moscow’s airstrikes in Ukraine while Western leaders gathered for the NATO Summit in Washington raised eyebrows. However, what went unnoticed was Modi’s departure from the tradition of Indian leaders visiting neighboring countries first on their overseas state visits.
In his previous terms, Modi visited Bhutan, Maldives, and Sri Lanka as his first overseas destinations. However, in 2024, he chose Italy and then Russia for his initial visits. This shift reflects a changing aspect of India’s foreign policy – as it grows as a global power, its focus on the region diminishes.
Despite Modi’s initial emphasis on the neighborhood with his “Neighborhood First” policy, India’s global aspirations now take precedence. It is moving towards bridging Western and Global South interests, sidelining its regional role.
Poor Connections
This shift is significant for two reasons. Firstly, China’s strategy of regional integration before global expansion aided its rise as a global power. India needs to enhance regional connectivity to benefit from the shift away from China in global supply chains.
While India has made efforts like the tripartite agreement with Bangladesh and Nepal for cross-border electricity trading, South Asia remains the least integrated region globally. Lack of progress in regional initiatives like SAARC and BIMSTEC is a hindrance.
Arc of Instability
Secondly, instability in India’s neighborhood impacts its global ambitions. Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan all face challenges, causing concerns for India. A potential terrorist attack by Pakistan-based militants can have severe repercussions for the region.
The China Factor
China’s increasing influence in South Asia complicates India’s engagements with neighbors. Countries in the region oscillate between pro-India and pro-China stances, leveraging concessions from both powers. India’s cooperation with other major powers in the region offers an alternative to China’s dominance.
India’s development and global rise are intertwined with regional stability and engagement. Renewed focus on the neighborhood is crucial for India to achieve its global aspirations.