The upcoming 2024 presidential election in the United States is set to impact China-U.S. relations, as the relationship between the two leading candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, takes center stage. Harris unexpectedly replacing President Joe Biden as the Democratic candidate has added a layer of unpredictability to the race.
Following the Republican and Democratic National Conventions in July and August, respectively, both candidates are engaged in a heated battle for the presidency. Harris currently holds a four-point lead over Trump in several polls, especially in key battleground states as of September 1. However, her stance on foreign policy, particularly concerning China, is still being questioned.
Harris’s swift ascent to the top of the Democratic ticket has limited her time to formulate a detailed foreign policy strategy. While the Democratic National Convention released a party platform, it was tailored for Biden, leaving Harris with the challenge of addressing her lack of experience in international affairs, having mostly focused on domestic issues throughout her career.
In a recent interview with CNN on August 29, Harris suggested that she may align with Biden’s foreign policy trajectory. However, her choice of Philip Gordon as her national security adviser hints at a potential shift in China policy, given Gordon’s pragmatic approach compared to Biden’s more confrontational stance.
Gordon’s views are shaped by his criticism of the Bush administration’s Iraq strategy, advocating for a balanced use of U.S. power. His perspective emphasizes the importance of leadership in shaping effective foreign policy, with a focus on Europe as well as acknowledging China as a primary concern in U.S. foreign relations.
The impact of Gordon’s influence on Harris’s China policy remains uncertain, while her deputy national security adviser, Rebecca Lissner, has played a key role in shaping the Biden administration’s China strategy. Lissner’s work reflects a strategic shift towards viewing China as a major competitor and emphasizes a strong U.S. military posture.
On the other hand, Trump is expected to maintain his aggressive stance towards China, focusing on economic and technological competition. His policy platform and potential appointments signal a continued emphasis on U.S. economic dominance and technological advancement, particularly in strategic areas like artificial intelligence and space.
Trump’s approach to Taiwan underscores his economic-centric foreign policy view, emphasizing arms sales and technological cooperation. He is likely to maintain a strong economic pressure strategy on China, potentially weakening U.S.-led alliances in the Indo-Pacific region.
Beijing is closely monitoring the U.S. election, anticipating challenges regardless of the election outcome. The Chinese government may focus on maintaining existing agreements and engagement with the U.S. under a Harris presidency, while preparing for the possibility of another Trump administration by enhancing ties with other global players.
In conclusion, the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election will significantly impact China-U.S. relations. Both Harris and Trump bring different approaches to foreign policy, setting the stage for a period of competition and rivalry between the two superpowers.