There is widespread concern regarding France’s standing on the global stage if either the National Rally (Rassemblement National, RN) or the New Popular Front (Nouveau Front Populaire, NPF) emerge victorious in the upcoming legislative elections on July 7. The implications extend to France’s influence in Europe, its capacity to drive fresh perspectives on strategic matters – particularly with the potential re-election of Donald Trump in the U.S. – as well as the future of the already delicate Franco-German alliance.
One major source of uncertainty and unease stems from the stances taken by the two extreme factions, especially in relation to their support for Ukraine. While the NPF is attempting to strike a more balanced stance, the presence of the LFI (La France Insoumise) faction and their leader, Jean Luc Mélenchon, who have expressed reluctance to endorse Ukraine, adds complexity. The RN, on the other hand, may have toned down its pro-Russia positions but is unlikely to align entirely with President Emmanuel Macron in backing Kyiv.
A lesser-debated foreign policy issue pertains to France’s interactions with major Asian powers, particularly China. Despite the geographical distance, the Indo-Pacific region holds considerable economic and strategic significance for France, especially in times of crisis.
The Indo-Pacific Policy of the National Rally
The primary focus of the RN lies in domestic matters, which resonate strongly with its voter base. Marine Le Pen has consistently emphasized that France’s interests are her top priority, echoing a French rendition of Trump’s “America First” mantra. Hence, under an RN administration, pragmatic considerations may take precedence over principles like human rights, potentially relegating Indo-Pacific challenges – despite being a cornerstone of France’s robust engagement in the region since 2018 – to the back burner.